A recent study reveals that the eastern U.S. has seen a significant increase in tree and shrub growth over the past three decades, a trend that is contributing to rising wildfire risks in the region. This growth, driven by processes like tree infilling in unmanaged forests, is fueling a shift in fire patterns, especially in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country.

Over the past forty years, certain areas, such as Texas and the Appalachian Mountains, have experienced a tenfold increase in the frequency of large wildfires. However, the study found that the northeastern U.S. does not show the same direct link between vegetation growth and large wildfires.

Wildfires thrive on woody vegetation, including trees and shrubs, and this new analysis of wildfire and vegetation data suggests that the eastern U.S. has seen a 37% increase in woody cover over the past 30 years. In regions with high levels of woody cover, there is a direct correlation with a higher risk of large wildfires.

The study, led by landscape ecologist Victoria Donovan from the University of Florida, aims to help identify regional drivers of the growing wildfire problem in the eastern U.S. The findings, published in Geophysical Research Letters, focus on the relationship between woody vegetation and wildfire risk.

While prior research has shown that an increase in woody cover in the western and central U.S. is linked to a greater wildfire risk, this had not been thoroughly explored in the eastern U.S. Donovan and graduate student Michaella Ivey collected data on all wildfires larger than 200 hectares between 1991 and 2021 in eastern states and compared this data with the spread of trees and shrubs over the same period. Their analysis showed a strong link between woody cover and large wildfires, especially in eastern Texas and the Appalachian region.

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For every 1% increase in woody cover, the likelihood of a wildfire the following year increased by 3.9% across the eastern temperate forest, which covers nearly half of the U.S. However, no such link was found in the Northeast or parts of the Mississippi River Valley, where cooler and wetter conditions may hinder wildfire occurrence.

The absence of a clear connection between vegetation and wildfire risk in some areas raises questions about other factors at play. The researchers suggest that in certain regions, such as the Northeast, climate conditions or human activities may be more significant drivers of wildfire frequency than the amount of woody cover.

While climate change and human activity likely play a role, the study indicates that managing vegetation by reducing fuel loads can help lower the risk of wildfires in the eastern U.S. Prescribed fires may become an increasingly important tool in southern states as the region faces drier conditions due to climate change.

Overall, the research highlights the importance of managing woody vegetation to reduce wildfire risks, especially as the eastern U.S. faces changing climate patterns in the coming decades.